What Can We Expect for Hurricanes in 2020?
Hurricane season 2019 might have just ended, but it is never too early to begin predicting what the 2020 hurricane season will be like. As with all predictions, the reader should take the following with a grain of salt. However, scientists are doing more than looking into a crystal ball or rolling dice. They are carefully using science and data to make their best guess about how the 2020 hurricane season will stack up compared to years before.
Expect Plenty of Tropical Storm Activity in 2020
Researchers at Colorado State University have been looking at global climate patterns, and they don’t like what they see. According to their research, there is a 45% chance that the 2020 hurricane season will see above normal activity. This means more storms and more damaging storms that do develop.
Researchers predict that there is also a 45% chance that storm activity will be normal in 2020. By contrast, they gave only a 1 in 10 chance that Floridians will see below normal hurricane activity in the new year. In other words, there is a 9 in 10 chance that we will need to brace for more damaging storms in 2020.
There is also a 51% chance that any type of hurricane will make landfall in our state in 2020. But there is only a 21% chance that the hurricane will be major.
Inconsistency over the Years
Anyone looking at the past decade will be surprised by how inconsistent storm activity has been. From 2013 to 2015, for example, hurricane seasons were relatively quiet, and scientists predicted that this pattern could hold for the remainder of the decade. However, the past four seasons have seen many damaging storms, including:
- Hurricane Matthew in 2016
- Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria in 2017
- Hurricane Michael in 2018
- Hurricane Dorian in 2019
Although Hurricane Dorian avoided making landfall in Florida, it was still a category 5 storm that devastated parts of the Caribbean. Had it landed in Florida, the results could have been disastrous. We might not be so lucky in 2020.
More Clarity in a Few Months
We will have to wait a few more months before we can get more detailed predictions of storm activity. Colorado State will issue its first detailed forecast on April 1, 2020.
However, we will need to wait until the summer to see how the Pacific Ocean warms. This is called El Niño, and it can work to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean while intensifying it elsewhere. When El Niño is strong, then Florida should see less hurricane activity. Scientists have cautioned that predicting El Niño activity is very difficult this far out, but trends should be clearer as we enter summer.
Suffered Property Damage in a Storm? Contact Us
Even the most optimistic should be prepared for plenty of storm activity, whether hurricanes, tropical storms, or tornadoes. If you have a legal issue related to storm damage, contact the Daytona Beach hurricane insurance claims lawyers at Bundza & Rodriguez, P.A. today. You can schedule a free consultation by calling 386-252-5170.